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A FINANCIAL TIMES BEST SUMMER BOOK OF 2025
‘Brilliant’ ALEX BELLOS
‘Illuminating’ DAILY MAIL
‘The case for better evidence in post-evidence times’ FINANCIAL TIMES
‘Profound and utterly absorbing’ CHRIS VAN TULLEKEN

How far would you go in your search for certainty? And once you get there, how do you convince others?

From the medieval Islamic world to the recent pandemic, scientific progress has relied on different methods of establishing fact from fiction. Today, in the face of ever-increasing disinformation, how we prove things – to ourselves and others – has never felt more urgent.

But there is far more to proof than axioms, theories and scientific laws: when demonstrating that an experimental medical treatment works, persuading a jury of someone’s guilt, or deciding whether to trust a new type of financial transaction, weighing up evidence is rarely simple.

Bestselling author, statistician and epidemiologist Adam Kucharski ranges across science, politics, philosophy and economics to explore how truth emerges – and why it falters.

Publisher Review

A profound and utterly absorbing exploration of the limits and power of proof and truth. Kucharski elegantly explores how proof is not just a mathematical concept but a vital tool in decision-making, justice, and survival — Chris van Tulleken Adam Kucharski has a knack of making complex problems sound simple – and exciting. A book that made me smile and feel clever — Peter Frankopan In an increasingly complex world, where we’re beset by information, misinformation, and endlessly required to make decisions about it all, Kucharski shines a brilliant and clarifying light through the muddle. Proof is a puzzle-solver’s delight; the essential guide we need to make sense of what and who to trust, and the risks therein — Gaia Vince A vivid, intelligent and wide-ranging book about how we know what we know. Adam Kucharski is a brilliant and entertaining guide — Tim Harford Kucharski explains why getting at the truth of just about anything is incredibly hard. There’s fascinating technical detail here, and a moral: the more we appreciate how hard proof is to come by, the better we can bridge the widening gulf between experts and sceptics — Simon Ings * New Scientist * Praise for The Rules of Contagion:
‘An eye-opening read, a worthwhile book * Sunday Times * A clear, calm, historical overview of the mathematical ideas at the forefront of our pandemic response, where they came from and how well they stand up when you put them to the test. — Hannah Fry * Guardian * Charts the history of this now-pivotal science, from its origins in understanding the spread of malaria, to its central role in predicting the dissemination of everything from diseases to fake news. * Economist * Astonishingly bold…Kucharski has pulled off the extraordinary trick of shining the brightest light on this unseen, menacing, but ultimately beatable, enemy. * Daily Mail *